Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings: Hayden Winks' RB2 (Ranked 13-24) projections
Fantasy football analyst Hayden Winks reveals his RB2 running back rankings and analysis for Week 1. He'll continue to update
RB13. Travis Etienne Jr. (at DET) – 81.5 proj. total yards
Alvin Kamara's status is unclear due to a training camp MCL injury, but that'd only change things on the margins. Etienne was paid well to be the base-down starter, a role that will lead to 15+ touches per week and almost all goal-line chances. In that role last year, Etienne was the per-game RB11 on RB14 usage.
The Saints' staff has talked up Etienne even more than the Jaguars ever did, and it's easy to argue this Saints OL will be the best he's played behind. It's an underrated good environment with New Orleans playing with the fastest neutral pace under HC Kellen Moore.
The matchup is neutral at best. The Lions were the 12th-best defense against fantasy RBs last season and look a bit better up front this season, even if the secondary is worse. The Saints have the No. 21 projected team total (21.75) while playing on the road as 7.0-point dogs. Kamara missing would open up more reception chances, which could come in handy given the game script.
Etienne is projected for 12.8 half PPR points and 80.5 total yards by the betting markets. Those will go up if Kamara is ruled out. Audric Estimé and Kendre Miller were also dealing with injuries last week, and Devin Neal was released.
RB14. James Cook II (at HOU) – 93.5 proj. total yards
The Bills will make some changes to their offense with Joe Brady promoted to head coach and with the D.J. Moore addition. It's possible they are slightly more pass-heavy after being 26th in neutral pass rate since 2024 when Cook really broke out. Cook was only the RB39 in receptions per game last year, so he can't lose too many carries and still be the RB6 that he finished as last year. He'll likely catch an extra ball per game this year while having his rushing numbers dropping a bit. That's not a death sentence.
The matchup is that death sentence. The Texans have one of the best defenses on paper of the decade. They were the second-best defense against fantasy RBs last year after adjusting for schedule. Opposing RB rooms averaged 20 fewer rush yards per game against Houston compared to their season averages (third worst). Since then, they've added run-stopper Jadaveon Clowney and second-round NT Kayden McDonald to the rotation. Nasty work.
Cook's Week 1 projection is way lower than it typically is. He's only projected for 12.6 half PPR points on 93.5 total yards by the betting markets. His projected 74.5 rushing yards are almost exactly 20 yards less than last year's 94-yard average. That lines up with my data in the previous paragraph. Buffalo is only 23rd in projected points as 1.5-point road dogs, too.
RB15. Breece Hall (at TEN) – 85.5 proj. total yards
This is the year to get excited for a top-15 season out of Hall. He's teased it many times, but the rest of the team wasn't ready. Geno Smith is a real upgrade over Justin Fields for the skill group, especially as this young Jets OL improved. That unit with star RT Armand Membou is approaching the very good tier. Even last year, Hall was the RB17, averaging 12.4 half PPR points in the 12 games without waived-QB Brady Cook.
The opening matchup in Tennessee is a little tougher than you'd think with HC Robert Saleh having star DT Jeffrey Simmons, DT John Franklin-Myers and EDGE Jermaine Johnson to work with. They should be better than the ninth-worse fantasy RB defense in 2026, though tackle-leading LB Cedric Gray is suddenly in the concussion protocol from an ATV accident.
The Jets are still only projected for 19.0 points here, the No. 29 projected team. Hall's bellcow status has him projected for 85.5 total yards and 12.9 half PPR points by the betting markets.
RB16. Kyren Williams (vs. SF) – 73.5 proj. total yards
The Kyren versus Corum split will be a Week 1 takeaway on prime time, as the gap has slowly closed between the two over time. Williams played between 50% and 63% of the snaps over their final four games, including the playoffs. For comparison, Kyren's lowest snap rate in 2024 was 68%. In the final game of last year, they straight-up rotated drives:
The Rams were so prolific last year (29.9 points per game) that Kyren still finished as half PPR's RB8 on RB12 usage, despite Corum's explosive sidekick role. The Rams project for 26.0 points in Australia against the Niners, which is the fourth-most of the week.
San Francisco has injuries to note. Nick Bosa hasn't practiced much, but said, "I'm flying out there, I'm going to f–king play." Alrighty! He'll be joined by underrated star DT Osa Odighizuwa this year, with super star LB Fred Warner returning from injury. EDGE2 Mykel Williams (ACL) is out, though. With many of those players out last year, Williams posted 21.4 half PPR points on 84 total yards.
He projects for just 73.5 total yards and 11.6 half PPR points this time around as a clear RB2.
RB17. Ashton Jeanty (vs. MIA) – 67.5 proj. total yards
We'll learn more later in the week.
RB18. Rhamondre Stevenson (at SEA) – 85.5 proj. total yards
TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) hasn't practiced in weeks and has been ruled out for Week 1.
The Patriots averaged 19.6 half PPR points between the RB room, and Stevenson is set to inherit almost all of it with Corey Kiner as his backup. It's a low-end RB1 workload.
Unfortunately, it's a rematch of the Super Bowl loss, but now it's also in Seattle. The Seahawks were the best defense against fantasy RBs after adjusting for schedule; opposing RB rooms averaged 2.2 fewer points per game against them. They were first in stopping RB rushing TDs, though they did allow the most targets to RBs (7.1) at the same time. Stevenson should catch 3-4 passes here to provide some level of a floor. He scored 14.8 half PPR points on 63 total yards and five receptions in the Patriots' Super Bowl loss.
Stevenson has an 11.8-point projection in half PPR on 85.5 total yards by the betting markets. New England is 24th in projected points at 20.5. This will be a great test for a reworked interior OL that added injured star LG Alijah Vera-Tucker and moved 2025 third-round athlete Jared Wilson back to C.
RB19. Bucky Irving (at CIN) – 75.5 proj. total yards
Waiting on Sean Tucker's status after he missed practice on Tuesday. Irving lost the goal-line role to Tucker after returning from shoulder injury in Week 13 last year, so solidifying his goal-line role would be a big deal to his outlook, even with Kenny Gainwell projected to offload passing snaps.
Since entering the league, Irving is the per-game RB16 on RB20 usage in half PPR. His rookie season was electric with an elite play-caller and healthy OL, while last year's advanced numbers had Irving near the very bottom with the OL and himself injured. The Bucs OL could be the best in the NFL this year, and Irving has practiced for weeks coming off a shoulder surgery. There is certainly upside right out of the gate.
The Bengals will be better with star DT Dexter Lawrence and more experience at LB/S, but it's a great opening matchup regardless. Tampa Bay is 12th in projected points (23.5) in Cincy. Irving has 76.5 total yard and 11.2 half PPR points projection in the betting markets as a volatile RB2.
RB20. Cam Skattebo (vs. DAL) – 70.5 proj. total yards
Skattebo came back from a dislocated ankle on time, didn't have a setback throughout training camp, and passed the eye test in preseason action. The Najee Harris signing is a potential long-term thorn, but that felt like an indictment on Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary more than one on their lead back.
Skattebo was the RB9 on RB15 usage when he went down with a Week 8 injury last year, catching 3.0 receptions per game and handling all of the goal line work. This version of the Giants will be more run committed with HC John Harbaugh bringing in Greg Roman types on the staff. All coaching and player quotes have suggested an extremely run-heavy approach with a FB and multiple TEs on the field. That's great for Skattebo.
The Giants were also 23rd in scoring during that eight-week sample with Skattebo, and they're projected for the No. 16 team total (22.75 points) this week while hosting the Cowboys. It helps that the Giants are adding Malik Nabers and first-round RG Francis Mauigoa to the offense.
Meanwhile, Dallas added star DT Quinnen Williams, first-round S Caleb Downs, first-round EDGE Malachi Lawrence, and others since Skattebo faced them, but he did hang 12.9 half PPR points on them in his starting debut last Week 2.
He's a quality low-end RB2. I like the higher on 10.2 half PPR points in the betting markets.
RB21. Jadarian Price (vs. NE) – 64.5 proj. total yards
With Zach Charbonnet (ACL) out, Price enters the season as the clear-cut starter. He's expected to be the base-down back with George Holani in a passing down role. Holani is not a real threat to the goal-line role in ways that were annoying with the Kenneth Walker III and Charbonnet split. It's probably a better role for Price than what Walker had when he was the RB22 on RB27 usage while Charbonnet was healthy.
For reference, the Seahawks’ entire RB room averaged 21.7 expected half PPR points from Week 1 through the Super Bowl last year, while whopping teams en route to 29.2 points per game (second most). It'll be very hard to replicate that consistent game script and explosive ability without OC Klint Kubiak.
The Patriots are a difficult matchup to open with, but they did at least lose run-stopping NT Kyhris Tonga this offseason. Last year's New England defense was fourth-best against fantasy RBs when adjusting for schedule. The Seahawks are projected for 24.0 points (11th), while Price has a wide range of outcomes on a projected 9.8 half PPR points per the betting markets.
RB22. Jaylen Warren (vs. ATL) – 62.5 proj. total yards
Warren went overlooked in the offseason as an incumbent in an offense set up for players with his skill set. New HC Mike McCarthy typically likes passing more than running, and this version of Aaron Rodgers loves throwing to his RBs so he doesn't have to get hit or throw deep. Last year, the Steelers were fourth in RB usage because Kenny Gainwell was the RB4 in receptions per game (4.3). Warren caught 2.4 per game (RB19). I doubt Rico Dowdle touches either mark this year.
Warren should have FLEX value in a similar role to last year when he finished as the RB20 per game on RB21 usage. If he can keep some of the goal line role while absorbing more receptions, then he's going to beat ADP with ease. We'll learn more about the rotation after Week 1, but I'd be surprised if Warren isn't the starter.
The matchup is awesome. The Steelers are 13th in projected points while hosting the Falcons. They won't have either 2025 first-round edge this week, and the Falcons were league average against fantasy RBs last year with them. Assume the Falcons have a bottom-three DL right now and mediocre off-ball LBs.
Warren projects for 62.5 total yards and 9.6 half PPR points by the betting markets. Those are worse than he had last year for some reason. I disagree!
RB23. David Montgomery (vs. BUF) – 68.5 proj. total yards
The Texans RB room averaged 16.0 half PPR points per game last year (28th), despite being 8th in carries. The OL was brutal, and they were also 27th in receptions. The hope is David Montgomery is much better than the recently-retired Nick Chubb and the new additions across the OL pay dividends. I'm skeptical.
Houston's OL still is an up-and-coming LT Aireontae Ersery, first-round rookie LG Keylan Rutledge, C Evan Brown ($2.4 million), RG Ed Ingram ($12.5M/year), and RT Trent Brown ($4.9M). That's an unproven left side and a contender for the worst right side in the NFL. Montgomery is a heady rusher, but he's also not explosive enough to create that much on his own in his age-29 season. Expect Woody Marks to rotate in both rushing and passing phases, even if Monty is the favorite for goal-line carries early on.
The Texans are 14th in projected points this week while hosting the Bills, who are unleashing a new 3-4 defense with DC Jim Leonard. Buffalo was the sixth-worst defense against fantasy RBs last year after adjusting for schedule. They played with a two-high shell at the third-highest rate last year, but more defenders in the box are expected this time around. It's a neutral to solid matchup on paper for Monty.
RB24. Chuba Hubbard (vs. CHI)
In the Panthers playoff game last year, Hubbard handled 17 touches and both goal-line touches with Rico Dowdle demoted to backup duties.
Jonathon Brooks has opposite traits to Dowdle as a better receiver and less proven short-yardage option. Brooks is also dealing with soreness, stemming from a twice-torn ACL. He's been working on the side with trainers. Meanwhile, Hubbard is fully healthy after an early-camp hamstring injury.
Hubbard is a clear favorite for the starting base-offense role in Week 1. This role led to an RB12 finish in half PPR points per game (on RB7 usage), back in 2024 for what it's worth. Project him for 15+ touches and the goal-line role initially. The Panthers are projected for the 21st-most points against the Bears this week. Chicago is one of the worst defenses on paper this year. This is probably the best week of the year for Hubbard. He's a FLEX starter.
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